Turning Crisis into Opportunity: Rooftop Solar Expansion for Energy Security and Sustainable Development in Pakistan
Keywords:
Rooftop Solar, Pakistan, Energy Security, Net Metering, Solar Adoption, Multi-Criteria Policy Index, Sustainable DevelopmentAbstract
Pakistan’s power sector is facing a combined crisis of high electricity tariffs, circular debt, underutilised generation capacity, transmission and distribution losses, and continued exposure to imported oil, LNG and coal. Recent geopolitical conflict shows that energy-importing economies remain vulnerable to international fuel price volatility and supply uncertainty. This paper develops an analytical policy framework to examine whether rooftop and distributed solar can reduce Pakistan’s exposure to future geopolitical fuel shocks while supporting sustainable development. The paper constructs a Multi-Criteria Policy Index (MCPI) to rank policy options for rooftop solar expansion. Under baseline assumptions, the paper shows that one additional gigawatt of distributed solar may generate around 1.49 TWh annually, which could avoid about USD 125 million in RLNG import expenditure. The analysis shows that rooftop solar can reduce dependence on international fuel markets, but its full benefit depends on inclusive finance, stable net-metering reform, smart meters, battery storage, DISCO modernisation, vendor certification and progressive tariff design. The paper recommends treating rooftop solar as a national energy security hedge rather than only a private consumer investment.
JEL Classification Codes: Q41, Q42, Q48, Q56, O13, D12
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